There’s always something new to learn.
Narrative fallacy. The blurb below describes it better than I could do. However, I was trying to contextualise it around the idea for AI in healthcare and how the debate gets trivialised around it. Any AI program, for example, would require massive investments in retooling people around the idea and with no obvious gains.
I have argued this idea in one of the write ups earlier about rejigging the science policy around making “punts” on long term horizons. However, those ideas again suffer from narrative fallacy because then the administrators would be faced with Hobson’s choice. The immediate returns on investment are extremely hard to quantify and I have been grappling with the “quantification of efficiency” gains.
Therefore, while it is easier to spur on a debate that “AI is taking away the jobs” it usually boils down to addressing “hype”. The large scale “cloud infrastructure” is extremely prohibitive to run and as again, there’s no goal post. Can you imagine running the neural networks to find a optimal solution for a gentleman with certain genetic mutations? The algorithms will dumb down the process because running the “full course” would not yield any benefit. Thats why a narrative fallacy.
This also brings the idea to the fore- we still are clueless on the long term complications of modulation. The goal posts have been shifted inconsistently and by the time you’d actually have some meaningful data in about a “decade”, the technology would have progressed. AI modelling could help but there is no “initial data” to feed into it 🙂
The narrative fallacy, Bezos explained, was a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan to describe how humans are biologically inclined to turn complex realities into soothing but oversimplified stories. Taleb argued that the limitations of the human brain resulted in our species’ tendency to squeeze unrelated facts and events into cause-and-effect equations and then convert them into easily understood narratives. These stories, Taleb wrote, shield humanity from the true randomness of the world, the chaos of human experience, and, to some extent, the unnerving element of luck that plays into all successes and failures.Jeff Bezos Talks About Writing and the Narrative Fallacy – About Editing and Writing
Narrative fallacy. All of us would want to reduce complexities to “focus” but miss the nuances.